I know my future analysis threads go flat. I'm ok with that. Sometimes I like to share what I find anyway.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8157/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2026-election

This market is the odds of either party having control of the house after this minor election year. The odds are really close now. Dems with odds of 53 and Pubs with 47. Now one could think, ah, 53>47, whatever they've been doing has been working! That really is a toss up. But the Dems had 70% odds within the 90 day period of that chart. So what happened? Clearly the Dems fucked themselves and going from a shy of certain victory to toss up in the house is a result this strategy not working out for them.

IDK. I think people will rightly think red v blue bs is boring and a retarded thing to care about. I think that is correct. But I think it is one nice way to ground one toe half way into reality when everyone will just say whatever for their team until all conversation is gaslighting. "No this shutdown is good for dems. No it's good for republicans. The republicans are responsible for it. It's the dems shutdown." I think if its worth talking about at all its worth it to have some hope of having a single unified truth. Maybe prediction markets aren't an infallible source of truth on at least the impact on political outcomes, but it's at least better than whatever gas lighting people come up with.

Also I think maybe society would unlock some super powers if we talked about the future and made more predictions about it. There is something progressively better in this, reacting to the past, reacting to present, reacting to the future. People do sports, driving, gaming, better when they have a well tuned model of the future. So I like the idea of talking about the future and what we can predict about it on about the same terms as we talk about the present.

Of course then we probably shouldn't just talk about what is a toss up but what is certain, that people without future markets might think is actually up in the air.

Mamdani is taking NY, and was set to from the moment he announced. Dems are winning Virginia. California is going to redraw its voting districts. The shutdown isn't ending till after elections at the soonest. There are about half odds this is going on past the 20th of November.

That's a lot of pretty much locked in Dem victories. But not in the house because they fucked themselves trying to pretend they didn't cause the think their own constituency hates. That's politicians. They will actively work to fuck over even their own constituency if they think they can pin someone else.

Now please proceed to downvote me for sharing red vs blue bs. Really. Please do. I think this is a lame post. But I still want to share the data since I have it, so I did.