Analyses of crime data show that while many of the largest U.S. cities with high crime rates have Democratic mayors, crime trends are often similar in Republican-led cities, and murder rates are frequently higher in states that voted Republican.
Crime in large cities is generally influenced by factors other than the political party of the mayor.
Major Republican-Run Cities and Crime Trends
Among the 20 largest U.S. cities, three were recently run by Republican mayors (Jacksonville, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City).
Jacksonville, FL: Frequently ranked among Republican-led cities with high murder rates, sometimes exceeding rates in NYC.
Fort Worth, TX: Reported significant increases in homicides during 2020, similar to trends in Democratic-led cities.
Oklahoma City, OK: Included in the group of large cities with significant Republican-led metropolitan crime rates.
Lexington, KY: Experienced an 84.6% increase in murders in 2020 compared to 2019.
Bakersfield, CA: Has a Republican mayor and has reported higher murder rates than major blue cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Key Data Insights
Red State Murder Gap: Data indicates that states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 have consistently had higher overall murder rates than those that voted for Joe Biden, a trend covering the past 20 years.
Small Differences in Cities: In the 20 largest U.S. cities, 16 Democratic-run cities averaged 12.3 murders per 100,000 people, while 3 Republican-run cities (Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Oklahoma City) averaged 11.4 in 2023, showing little influence of party leadership on crime.
Highest Firearm Deaths: 15 of the 20 states with the highest firearm mortality rates are led by Republicans.
Non-Partisan Crime Drivers: Experts warn that using crime data to rank cities by political leadership is simplistic, as factors like population density, poverty, and economic factors (especially during the pandemic) drive crime rates.
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Analyses of crime data show that while many of the largest U.S. cities with high crime rates have Democratic mayors, crime trends are often similar in Republican-led cities, and murder rates are frequently higher in states that voted Republican.
Crime in large cities is generally influenced by factors other than the political party of the mayor.
Major Republican-Run Cities and Crime Trends
Among the 20 largest U.S. cities, three were recently run by Republican mayors (Jacksonville, Fort Worth, and Oklahoma City).
Jacksonville, FL: Frequently ranked among Republican-led cities with high murder rates, sometimes exceeding rates in NYC.
Fort Worth, TX: Reported significant increases in homicides during 2020, similar to trends in Democratic-led cities.
Oklahoma City, OK: Included in the group of large cities with significant Republican-led metropolitan crime rates.
Lexington, KY: Experienced an 84.6% increase in murders in 2020 compared to 2019.
Bakersfield, CA: Has a Republican mayor and has reported higher murder rates than major blue cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Key Data Insights
Red State Murder Gap: Data indicates that states that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 have consistently had higher overall murder rates than those that voted for Joe Biden, a trend covering the past 20 years.
Small Differences in Cities: In the 20 largest U.S. cities, 16 Democratic-run cities averaged 12.3 murders per 100,000 people, while 3 Republican-run cities (Jacksonville, Fort Worth, Oklahoma City) averaged 11.4 in 2023, showing little influence of party leadership on crime.
Highest Firearm Deaths: 15 of the 20 states with the highest firearm mortality rates are led by Republicans.
Non-Partisan Crime Drivers: Experts warn that using crime data to rank cities by political leadership is simplistic, as factors like population density, poverty, and economic factors (especially during the pandemic) drive crime rates.